Interest Rates
Thoughts From The Divide – Disconnect
February 24, 2023
In a recent essay for PIMCO, (disgraced?) former Vice Chair of the Fed, Richard Clarida, explained that “markets are finally listening” to the Fed’s message of...
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All Publications
Fed
The Fed: Are the SEP Realistic?
January 24, 2023
The Fed SEP are inconsistent with low inflation, higher unemployment and yet no recession, Our work agrees that inflation is falling
Interest Rates
Thoughts From The Divide – There’s a Chance?
January 19, 2023
Back in December, CNBC published “Why everyone thinks a recession is coming in 2023”, explaining that historically, “When inflation picks up and the Fed...
Bank of Japan
Japan Update: BoJ Stands Pat, Will Use Funds-Supplying Operations to Tame Curve
January 18, 2023
As expected, the Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Board decided to keep interest rates unchanged. Despite huge pressure from the market, no changes were made to the...
Bank of Japan
Japan Update: Yield Curve Out of Control: 10-Year JGB Yield Tops 0.545%
January 13, 2023
Yield Curve Out of Control: 10-Year JGB Yield Tops 0.545%, November Current Account Rises 16%, Corporate Pension Returns Hit by Higher Rates, TSMC Said to Eye Second...
Fed
Thoughts From The Divide – Checking on the Frogs
January 12, 2023
In November of last year, we wrote about how Small Businesses are an indicator species that help us “diagnose the health” of our economic ecosystem. Though we...
MI2 Chart Point
MI2 Chart Point: Breaking the Trends of a Decade
January 10, 2023
While history is never the same, we all know it rhymes, and since the start of this US equity bear market, we’ve been struck by the similarities to the dot.com...
Employment
Thoughts From The Divide – Watching the Labor Market
January 6, 2023
While there was a variety of data this week, including the Fed minutes (discussed below), much of the headline space was devoted to the latest employment data, and...
Wages
Japan Update: 10-Year JGB Auction Highest Yield Since June 2015
January 6, 2023
The Ministry of Finance (MoF) held its first 10-year JGB auction of the year on Thursday. The new #369 bond had the coupon raised from 0.2% to 0.5%.
